🌅 Pre-Market Pulse

S&P Futures
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Dow Futures
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10Y Treasury
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US Dollar
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Data as of 7:08 AM ET
Good morning! Happy Thursday. Futures are drifting a touch lower this morning, but the real story is coming out of Taiwan, where TSMC just dropped a monster revenue number that has the chip crowd paying attention. Meanwhile, Macy's is proving turnarounds can actually work and geopolitics is bubbling near the Strait of Hormuz. Here's your morning rundown.

👀 What to Watch Today

The chip sector takes center stage today after TSMC (TSM) reported August revenue jumped more than 53% year over year to a record high. That kind of print is a tell for AI demand, so watch how it ripples through NVDA, AMD, and the broader semis complex when the bell rings.

Retail earnings are back in focus too. Macy's (M) posted strong second-quarter results and raised full-year guidance, a signal worth tracking for how the consumer is holding up heading into the fall.

Keep an eye on Treasury yields as well. The 10-year ticked up to 4.84% and the dollar index nudged higher to 98.88, both worth watching for their pull on rate-sensitive corners of the market.

🌏 Overnight Recap

Overnight, geopolitics grabbed headlines as President Trump warned Tehran over activity at the suspected nuclear site known as Pickaxe Mountain, with the U.S. and Iran exchanging ship attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Any escalation near that chokepoint tends to put a bid under oil, so energy names are worth a glance.

In Europe, Novartis (NVS) remains in the spotlight after a major shareholder called for a board shake-up following back-to-back trial setbacks that triggered a record share drop this week.

Also across the pond, Associated British Foods (ASBFY) said its Primark chain, set to spin off next year, will roll out home delivery in the UK, a modernization push for the value retailer.
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📊 Pre-Market Movers

TSMC (TSM) is the name to watch after that record 53% revenue surge, a print that could lift the entire semiconductor group and sympathy names across the AI supply chain.

Macy's (M) is drawing buyers after beating on second-quarter results and raising its outlook for both net sales and comparable sales, a rare bright spot in department store retail.

On the flip side, Novartis (NVS) stays under pressure as an activist shareholder pushes for a board overhaul following this week's record decline. OpenAI-linked sentiment is also worth monitoring after reports of a Senate probe into its response to the July Hugging Face breach.

🔍 Today's Watchlist

  1. TSMC (TSM) record August revenue and the read-through for NVDA, AMD and the AI chip trade
  2. Macy's (M) raised guidance and whether it lifts the broader retail sector sentiment
  3. Novartis (NVS) governance fight after trial setbacks and record share drop
  4. Oil and energy names as Iran tensions flare near the Strait of Hormuz
  5. 10-year Treasury at 4.84% and DXY at 98.88 pressuring rate-sensitive stocks
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🎯 The Morning Playbook

The playbook today leans on the chip story. TSMC's record revenue is a fresh data point that AI demand is still very much alive, so watch whether semis can carry the tape even with futures pointing slightly lower.

On the consumer side, Macy's raised guidance offers a small but real signal that select retailers are executing. Pair that with rising yields and a firmer dollar, and the setup favors staying selective rather than chasing broad exposure.

Keep energy on your radar given the Hormuz headlines, and remember that quiet futures mornings often hide the day's best individual setups. Stay sharp and let the strong stories lead you.

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