🌅 Pre-Market Pulse

S&P Futures 7,506.00 ▲ +8.50 (+0.11%)	Nasdaq Futures 28,568.00 ▲ +106.25 (+0.37%)	Dow Futures 52,719.00 ▲ +144.00 (+0.27%)
10Y Treasury 4.66% ▲ +0.04%	US Dollar 100.19 ▲ +0.01 (+0.01%)	Bitcoin $63,928 ▼ -$794 (-1.23%)

Good morning! Friday, July 31, and the final trading day of the month is shaping up with a quiet but constructive tone. Futures are pointing higher across the board, with the Nasdaq leading the charge and tech sentiment getting a quiet lift from the ongoing AI infrastructure story surrounding Oracle. There is plenty to unpack before the opening bell, so here is your morning rundown.

👀 What to Watch Today

Today is the last session of July, which means portfolio managers and funds may be making month-end positioning moves that can create unusual volume or price action in the afternoon. Keep an eye on any rebalancing activity, especially in large-cap tech, where flows can be exaggerated heading into the close.

On the macro side, treasury yields are creeping higher this morning, with the 10-year at 4.66% and the 30-year pushing 5.21%. That is the kind of rate environment that tends to put pressure on high-multiple growth names, so watch how Nasdaq futures hold up once the cash session opens.

There is no blockbuster economic release on the schedule today, but the PCE price index data from earlier this week continues to shape rate expectations heading into August. Any Fed commentary or additional data surprises could quickly shift the mood before noon.

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🌏 Overnight Recap

Overnight, global markets were generally constructive. European equities held steady as corporate earnings continued to roll in, with German sportswear maker Puma reporting Q2 currency-adjusted sales that beat expectations slightly, a small but notable sign that consumer spending in key regions is not falling off a cliff despite ongoing pressure. The stock is worth watching for any sympathetic moves in the broader retail and apparel space.

In Asia, markets were mixed but calm. India was a quiet outperformer on the back of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries reporting a 27% jump in quarterly profit, driven by strong demand for high-margin specialty medicines. That kind of earnings quality from a major emerging market pharma name underscores the ongoing theme of healthcare as a defensive growth play.

Meanwhile, Shell confirmed it is selling its BG Cyprus unit to Hungary's MOL Group for up to $720 million. The deal is modest in size for a company of Shell's scale, but it signals continued asset rationalization in the energy sector, a theme worth tracking as oil majors sharpen their focus heading into the second half of the year.

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📊 Pre-Market Movers

Couche-Tard (ANCTF) is the headline grabber this morning. The Canadian convenience store giant announced plans to acquire Polish retailer Zabka for approximately $8.72 billion, making it one of the largest retail deals of 2026. Zabka operates thousands of small-format convenience stores across Poland, and the deal signals that Couche-Tard is serious about planting its flag in Central and Eastern European markets.

Shell (SHEL) is also in focus after confirming the sale of BG Cyprus to MOL Group for up to $720 million. The deal includes milestone-linked contingent payments, so the final number could vary, but the strategic direction is clear. Shell continues to streamline its portfolio, and investors will be watching whether management signals any plans for the proceeds.

On the tech side, Oracle is drawing attention not from an earnings release but from a deep investigative piece by the Times examining Larry Ellison's aggressive AI infrastructure bet and the significant debt load the company has taken on to fund data centers globally. No direct price catalyst yet, but sentiment around ORCL could be choppy as traders digest the implications of that reporting.

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🔍 Today's Watchlist

1. ANCTF: Couche-Tard's $8.7 billion Zabka acquisition is a bold EM retail bet worth monitoring closely today
2. SHEL: Shell's BG Cyprus sale to MOL Group closes a chapter on European gas assets, watch for analyst reactions
3. ORCL: The Larry Ellison AI data center debt story from the Times investigation could weigh on Oracle sentiment today
4. 10-Year Treasury at 4.66%: Rising yields into month-end could cap upside for rate-sensitive growth stocks
5. Bitcoin at $63,928 and falling: Crypto weakness diverging from equity strength is a signal worth watching for risk appetite clues

🎯 The Morning Playbook

The setup for today is relatively balanced. Futures are green, but the gains are modest, and rising yields are a real counterweight to any enthusiasm in growth and tech. The Nasdaq is the index to watch most closely today, given its sensitivity to rate moves and the Oracle headlines floating around.

For active traders, the Couche-Tard and Shell stories offer event-driven opportunities in consumer and energy names. For longer-term investors, today is really about assessing where things stand heading into August, a month that historically brings lower liquidity and higher volatility.

Close out July with clear eyes. The macro picture is not dramatically changed from a week ago, rates are elevated, earnings have been mixed but mostly resilient, and AI remains the dominant investment theme regardless of the skepticism creeping into the Oracle narrative. Stay selective, stay curious, and have a great Friday.

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