🌅 Pre-Market Pulse

S&P Futures 7,519.00 ▼ -6.75 (-0.09%)	Nasdaq Futures 28,800.25 ▼ -122.00 (-0.42%)	Dow Futures 52,474.00 ▲ +22.00 (+0.04%)
10Y Treasury 4.57% ▲ +0.02%	US Dollar 100.84 ▲ +0.08 (+0.08%)	Bitcoin $63,065 ▼ -$705 (-1.11%)

Good morning! Friday, July 17th is arriving with the kind of mixed signals that keep traders honest. Nasdaq futures are sliding while the Dow is barely hanging onto green, and there is enough deal flow in today's news to keep things interesting from the opening bell. A $12.4 billion aircraft order, an Iraq energy summit, and a long-awaited IPO approval are all on the table this morning. Here is what you need to know before the market opens.

👀 What to Watch Today

The U.S.-Iraq Business Summit in Washington is the macro event to circle on your Friday calendar. BP and COP are both expected to formally announce major new investment commitments in Iraq during the summit, a move framed around the broader U.S. strategy to chip away at Iran's energy influence in the region. These are the kinds of announcements that can move energy sector sentiment in real time.

On the earnings and data front, keep an eye on any ripple effects from Danske Bank's stronger-than-expected Q2 print and raised full-year outlook. European financials outperforming tends to nudge sentiment across global banking names. Treasury yields are creeping higher this morning, with the 10-year at 4.57% and the 30-year pushing 5.10%, so rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities deserve a watchful eye heading into the session.

The dollar index is holding firm at 100.84, which is worth monitoring alongside Bitcoin's slide to $63,065. Crypto and risk assets have been moving in tandem lately, and today's modest tech futures weakness adds some context to that pullback.

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🌏 Overnight Recap

While U.S. markets were closed, the biggest headline came out of China's aviation sector. Air China and its subsidiary Shenzhen Airlines locked in an order for 55 Airbus jets with a list price of $12.4 billion. The deal covers more fuel-efficient aircraft as China's flag carrier pushes to modernize its fleet and build out capacity. Airbus shares, traded in the U.S. under EADSY and EADSF, are worth watching when the session gets going.

Also overnight, Shein cleared a major hurdle on its long road to going public. Hong Kong's stock exchange listing committee gave the green light for a Shein IPO, according to sources familiar with the matter. This is a significant step for the fast-fashion giant after years of regulatory scrutiny and repeated delays. No ticker yet, but the approval puts Shein meaningfully closer to a public market debut.

Over in Stockholm, Volvo Cars reported a sequential profit decline in Q2, though the automaker is pinning its recovery hopes on new EV deliveries ramping up in the back half of the year. VLVCY is worth a glance this morning for anyone tracking the global EV transition and how legacy automakers are navigating it.

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📊 Pre-Market Movers

GSK is the name drawing the most pre-market attention for the wrong reasons. The pharma giant confirmed it is scrapping development of its experimental refractory chronic cough treatment after the drug failed to hit a key primary endpoint in a late-stage trial. Pipeline setbacks at this stage are costly, both financially and in terms of investor confidence, and GSK shares are feeling that pressure heading into the open.

On the positive side, the Airbus trade (EADSY, EADSF) is looking constructive after Air China and Shenzhen Airlines confirmed a 55-jet deal worth $12.4 billion at list prices. Aircraft orders of this size do not happen every week, and it signals continued confidence in long-haul travel demand out of China despite a choppy global macro backdrop.

Volvo Cars (VLVCY) is another one to watch after reporting softer Q2 profits. The company is leaning into new EV model deliveries as its path back to growth, but the near-term numbers are not inspiring. In a market where EV sentiment is already fragile, this kind of print tends to weigh on the broader auto tech trade.

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🔍 Today's Watchlist

1. BP and COP: Watch for official Iraq investment announcements out of the Washington summit today
2. EADSY and EADSF: Airbus could see a lift on the $12.4 billion China aircraft order confirmed overnight
3. GSK: A late-stage trial miss on its refractory chronic cough drug puts the stock under pressure this morning
4. 10-Year Treasury at 4.57%: Rising yields are a headwind for growth stocks, watch Nasdaq closely at the open
5. Shein IPO watch: No ticker yet but Hong Kong listing approval is a milestone that moves fast-fashion and retail sentiment

🎯 The Morning Playbook

The setup for Friday is genuinely split. Dow futures are technically green while Nasdaq futures are down 0.42%, which tells you the rotation story between tech and more traditional industrials and energy names is alive and kicking. With the Iraq energy summit and two major energy companies expected to drop big announcements, BP and COP are the names to have front and center.

For longer-term investors, the Shein IPO clearance is a story that is just getting started. Getting Hong Kong listing committee approval is one gate, but execution is another. Watch how this develops as a signal for broader emerging market IPO appetite.

Head into your Friday with the rates picture in focus. The 30-year Treasury at 5.10% is not screaming crisis, but it is a level that deserves respect. When duration is expensive, high-multiple growth names feel it first. Stay nimble, lean on the news, and have a great weekend.

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