🌅 Pre-Market Pulse

S&P Futures 7,784.75 ▲ +1.00 (+0.01%)	Nasdaq Futures 29,918.50 ▲ +38.50 (+0.13%)	Dow Futures 54,083.00 ▼ -13.00 (-0.02%)
10Y Treasury 4.66% ▼ -0.01%	US Dollar 99.70 ▼ -0.02 (-0.02%)	Bitcoin $64,961 ▲ +$113 (+0.17%)

Good morning! It is Monday, August 10, and the pre-market picture is about as mixed as a bag of trail mix, with the Nasdaq nudging higher while the Dow slips a few ticks into the red. The real story this morning is not in the futures at all, it is in the semiconductor sector, where TSMC just dropped a jaw-dropping revenue number that has the AI trade firmly back in focus. Grab your coffee and let's get into what matters.

👀 What to Watch Today

Today's session does not feature a blockbuster earnings report on the calendar, but that does not mean there is nothing to track. The macro backdrop matters here, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.66% and the dollar index softening slightly to 99.70. Any movement in rates or the DXY today could set the tone for risk appetite across equities.

On the semiconductor front, TSMC's July revenue print of NT$467.58 billion will likely ripple through the chip complex all session long. Watch how NVDA, AMD, and AVGO respond to what is effectively a real-time demand signal from the world's most important chipmaker. When TSMC's numbers are this strong, the downstream names rarely sit still.

Keep an eye on the broader crypto space after Coinbase's chief legal officer Paul Grewal announced his departure. COIN has been a policy-sensitive name for years, and losing the architect of its regulatory strategy is not a nothing event. Any follow-through in Bitcoin, currently at $64,961, could amplify moves in COIN and the crypto-adjacent names.

Don't download this book (seriously) [ad]

🌏 Overnight Recap

Asian markets got a boost overnight from TSMC's revenue data, with Taiwan's TWSE leading gains in the region. The numbers, a 44.7% year-over-year jump to $14.5 billion in July alone, confirmed that AI chip demand is not showing any signs of a summer slowdown. Nvidia and Alphabet, two of TSMC's largest customers, will be names to monitor closely when the opening bell rings.

In Europe, markets traded cautiously ahead of a week that includes several central bank speakers. The dollar's mild softness, down 0.02 to 99.70, gave some relief to emerging market currencies and commodity prices overnight, though moves were modest across the board.

Shein's IPO filing disclosures also made the rounds overnight, with documents showing that U.S. tariff changes and the end of the de minimis exemption have hit both growth and margins. Shein is warning that sales could fall further if policy does not reverse, a detail that underscores how meaningfully trade policy is reshaping e-commerce. Domestic retailers like AMZN and discount players could see ripple effects worth monitoring.

A Billionaire Just Said You'll Buy an F-150 for $1,000 [ad]

📊 Pre-Market Movers

TSLA is catching attention in pre-market after a fresh wave of retail buying pushed shares higher. The stock is not cheap by most conventional measures, but retail enthusiasm has a way of creating its own momentum, at least in the short term. Options activity around TSLA will be worth watching once the market opens.

TSM is the quiet mover of the morning even if its ADR does not always reflect intraday Taiwan moves perfectly. The 44.7% revenue jump puts a spotlight on the entire AI infrastructure chain. NVDA, AVGO, and QCOM could all see elevated volume today as traders re-price the semiconductor outlook on fresh real-world demand data.

COIN is a name to watch on the downside after the Grewal news. Losing your chief legal officer mid-crypto-regulatory-cycle is the kind of headline that invites uncertainty, and markets tend to price uncertainty quickly. Bitcoin's relative steadiness at $64,961 may provide some floor, but do not be surprised if COIN underperforms the broader crypto trade today.

Stop trading until you read this [ad]

🔍 Today's Watchlist

1. TSM and the chip complex: TSMC's 45% revenue surge is the loudest AI demand signal we have seen in weeks
2. TSLA retail momentum: shares are rallying again on retail buying interest but valuation questions remain front and center
3. COIN leadership risk: Paul Grewal's departure as CLO removes a key regulatory architect at a pivotal moment for crypto policy
4. 10-Year yield at 4.66%: any intraday push higher could pressure rate-sensitive growth names heading into the afternoon
5. Meta and the AI narrative: Zuckerberg's 6,500-word AI essay is making the rounds and could re-energize the META trade today

🎯 The Morning Playbook

The TSMC number is the anchor for today's session. When the world's dominant chipmaker reports a 45% revenue jump driven by AI demand, it is not a coincidence, it is a confirmation. Investors who have been second-guessing the durability of the AI infrastructure build-out got a pretty clear answer overnight. The play is to watch how the U.S. chip names respond and whether they hold any gains into the close.

On the other side of the ledger, the Shein tariff story is a useful reminder that trade policy continues to reshape business models in real time. Companies built on low-cost cross-border shipping are being stress-tested, and that pressure does not appear to be easing anytime soon. Domestic e-commerce players and logistics names could see positioning shifts as a result.

Start the week with clear eyes. Futures are mixed, but the underlying stories are anything but boring. Between chip dominance, retail enthusiasm for Tesla, and a crypto leadership shake-up, Monday has more than enough material to work with. Stay selective, stay informed, and do not let a flat futures tape fool you into thinking today will be quiet.

70% of the Fortune 100 depend on this mystery AI stock [ad]